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文章阅读:Re: 各位对这次IT产业衰退有什么看法?
[版面: 电子工程] [作者:lightspeed] , 2002年05月13日22:37:02
lightspeed
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发信人: lightspeed (海克@走出北卡), 信区: EE
标  题: Re: 各位对这次IT产业衰退有什么看法?
发信站: The unknown SPACE (Mon May 13 23:18:09 2002), 转信

IT still has a long way to go ah, now only the basic ideas
are realized, and, what did they say, not until 2014, the
silicon technology will go on without stop. After that,
maybe other semiconductors will emerge, and last for another
10-20 years.  TV, refrigerator stopped developing for a long
time, for they are good enough for houselife.  But are the
current PC, Networks and cellphones good enough?  Maybe yes
for cellphones, but those so called e-commerce and other
techniques like storage, networking, etc. are still not good
enough. And, there is another field need to develop, the
informationization of all household electronic equipments.

For software case, things are even more different.  Now software
companies are gradually becoming service companies, which are
similiar to the traditional professionals, Doctors and Lawyers.
Note that this industry is quite different from TV and Refrigerators.
Every company has a different demand for their softwares, and the
accompanying services like updating, etc.  In contrast, the pure
industry can reduce cost by mass production, which is nearly
impossible for doctors, lawyers and system maintenancers.  For
hardware part, the same arguement also stands, for there are always
numorous need for various kinds of chips, controllers, .. And
they will continue developing for at least several decades. 
Think about those analog circuit designers, they kept on working
like professionals for the last decades, and will still be like
this in the future. 

【 在 wjmao (rookie) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然许多人把这次的IT衰退看成是.com泡沫的崩溃,而不会影响IT业整体的发展。
: 但我个人认为这次IT业的整体回调,预示这IT的黄金十年已经过去,复苏是必然
: 的,但再也不是过去高速暴利的IT业,而将变成第二个家电产业。
: 从食物链的角度将,消费取向永远是市场和技术的第一推动。PC的产生是革命、
: 从PC到网络也是革命,从网络到移动也被认为是一场正在进行的革命,这三驾
: 马车推动了过去的二十年IT业的迅猛发展,创造了新经济的神话,但现在呢,
: IT的驱动在那里呢?无线也只是一根救命稻草,市场需求已经体现,只会平稳
: 增长。目前在中国的沿海地区,PC、上网、手机就像彩电冰箱一样平常,而不是
: 十年以前那样的高贵,那么我们的IT产业的发展会怎样。。。
: 从技术的角度讲,可以有许多新的好的技术,但需求有吗?IT是否会产生继PC、
: 上网和手机以后可以这样大的改变老百姓生活的产品吗?如果没有,那我们的IT
: 业的快速成长期已经结束,接下来只是一个平稳的发展期,就像五六十年代的家
: 电业一样,而厂商的暴利和我们的高薪也将结束了。。。
: 欢迎各位讨论。


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※ 来源:.The unknown SPACE bbs.mit.edu.[FROM: 66.57.229.69]

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